Monday November 9th


US stocks seen lower after world growth forecast cut

U.S. stock index futures fell on Monday as markets awaited hints on how the Federal Reserve would respond to Friday's surprisingly strong jobs data and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cut its forecast for global growth. The Fed is viewed as more likely to hike interest rates next month, since Friday's figures showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 271,000 in October — the largest gain since December 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 5.0 percent — the lowest since April 2008. Barclays, for instance, now forecasts an uptick in the federal funds range to 25-50 basis points next month, up from the current 0-25 basis points. "The recent change in communication, the faster dissipation in uncertainty (VIX mean-reverting faster), and a very solid payroll report necessitate a change in our call to December," said Siddhartha Sanyal, an economist at Barclays, in a research note on Monday. As the Fed's December meeting looms, speeches from its officials will receive special attention from markets. The first up is Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, on Monday. "Rosengren has previously stated that he believed that 2 percent growth would be needed for rate liftoff this year. We expect him to shift his focus slightly and look through the transitory weakness in third-quarter GDP (gross domestic product) data, focusing instead on the underlying health of the domestic economy," said Barclays. No major economic data are due from the U.S. on Monday. This week brings the first of the major retail earnings for the third quarter. Results from Dean Foods are out on Monday, along with Hertz Global and Sotheby's. In international news, the OECD has cut its world growth forecast to around 2.9 percent for this year. That's down from the 3.0 percent forecast in September and the 3.1 percent estimated in June. The U.S. is seen posting growth of 2.4-2.5 percent each year between 2014 and 2017. China's growth is seen declining to 6.8 percent in 2015 and continuing to fall in both 2016 and 2017. This adds to signs of weakness from the world's second-biggest economy, which released weak trade figures on Monday. October exports fell 6.9 percent in October, year-on-year, down for a fourth month. Imports slipped 18.8 percent, leaving China with a record high trade surplus of $61.6 billion. European stocks traded lower. Energy companies like Tullow Oil and Premier Oil lead the gainers, on the back of a slight rise in WTI and Brent crude oil prices. Asian stocks diverged on Monday, with equity markets in China and Japan scaling their highest levels in more than two months while other regional bourses wobbled on the back of below-view trade figures from China over the weekend. Nikkei rises 2%. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index extended gains to finish at its highest level in two and a half months, as a weaker yen trading at 123.36 against the U.S. dollar fueled risk appetite. Oil futures rose above $48 a barrel on Monday as OPEC said it expected global demand to remain strong next year, while weak Chinese trade data and concerns over rising supplies weighed. A weaker dollar further supported oil, with Brent crude for December delivery up 71 cents at $48.13 a barrel by 7:33 a.m. EDT (1233 GMT), after falling more than 4 percent last week. December U.S. crude gained 59 cents to $44.88 a barrel after falling nearly five percent last week. Gold rose on Monday, snapping an eight-day losing streak as the dollar edged down, but still hovered near its lowest in three months as surging U.S. jobs data boosted expectations of a U.S. rate hike in December. Spot gold was up 0.52 percent at $1,093.90 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose $5.40 to $1,093.10 an ounce.